Nigeria’s crude oil output inched up to 1.436 million barrels per day (bpd) in November from 1.401 million bpd in October, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) said in its monthly oil market report on Thursday.
Despite the increase, Nigeria missed its OPEC production quota for the fourth straight month. The country last met its assigned target in July 2025. OPEC data showed Nigeria averaged 1.444 million bpd in the third quarter, down from 1.481 million bpd in the second quarter and 1.468 million bpd in the first.
The figures underscore Nigeria’s difficulty sustaining a production rebound despite new investment and government efforts to stabilise the sector. Persistent crude theft, pipeline vandalism and operational bottlenecks remain major constraints.
OPEC and its allies will need to pump about 43 million bpd next year to balance the market, roughly matching output levels in November. The outlook contrasts with industry projections of a potential supply surplus in 2026. Key OPEC+ producers, led by Saudi Arabia, last month paused planned output increases for the first quarter of 2026, citing fragile market conditions.
Nigeria’s continued underperformance poses risks for government revenue and foreign exchange earnings, as oil remains its dominant source of income. Still, the gradual rise in production offers a tentative sign of recovery that could improve fiscal stability if maintained.
The government is banking on refinery rehabilitation, the launch of new private refineries including the Dangote plant and renewed upstream investment to strengthen output next year. Analysts say progress will depend largely on addressing security challenges and infrastructure weaknesses that have long constrained Nigeria’s oil sector.
