By Douglas Maha, with agency reports
Global oil prices remained largely stable on Monday, staying above Nigeria’s 2026 budget benchmark of $64.85 per barrel, as supply disruptions and rising geopolitical tensions in the Middle East continued to support the market.
Market data tracked by Reuters showed that Brent crude futures dipped slightly by 7 cents, or 0.1 per cent, to $65.81 per barrel as of early Monday trading. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude also eased marginally by 6 cents, or 0.1 per cent, to $61.01 per barrel.
The mild pullback followed a strong rally in the previous session, when oil prices jumped by more than 2 per cent. Both Brent and WTI ended last week with gains of about 2.7 per cent, closing at their highest levels since mid-January.
Analysts say the market continues to price in supply tightness and heightened geopolitical risks. JPMorgan estimates that severe winter weather has disrupted about 250,000 barrels per day of U.S. crude output, affecting production in the Bakken shale region, Oklahoma and Texas.
At the same time, tensions in the Middle East have added a risk premium to prices, following the deployment of a U.S. aircraft carrier strike group to the region and warnings from Iranian officials that any attack on Iranian territory would be viewed as an act of war.
For Nigeria, the price stability offers some relief for fiscal planning. The 2026 budget is based on an oil price benchmark of $64.85 per barrel and a production target of 2.6 million barrels per day, assumptions that are critical to government revenue projections and foreign exchange earnings.
However, analysts caution that while prices above the benchmark provide a buffer, Nigeria still faces risks from persistent production challenges, including oil theft, pipeline vandalism and operational inefficiencies, which could limit the benefits of favourable global prices.
