Nigeria’s crude oil production rose marginally to 1.401 million barrels per day (bpd) in October, up from 1.39 million bpd recorded in September, according to the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) Monthly Oil Market Report (MOMR) released on Wednesday.
Despite the slight increase, the report revealed that Nigeria failed to meet its OPEC-assigned quota for the third consecutive month, with the last full compliance recorded in July 2025.
OPEC data showed that Nigeria’s average output stood at 1.444 million bpd in the third quarter of 2025, down from 1.481 million bpd in the second quarter and 1.468 million bpd in the first quarter. The figures reflect ongoing challenges in sustaining production recovery despite renewed investments and government interventions in the oil sector.
Globally, OPEC reported that oil supply exceeded demand by 500,000 barrels per day in October, reversing a 400,000-barrel shortfall recorded the previous month. The rise was attributed mainly to increased non-OPEC production, with the United States contributing more than half of the 890,000 barrels per day added globally.
Meanwhile, Nigeria’s Minister of State for Petroleum (Oil), Senator Heineken Lokpobiri, recently disclosed plans to formally request OPEC to raise the country’s production quota from 1.5 million bpd to 2 million bpd. He said recent progress in the sector—including the revival of dormant oil fields, deployment of new drilling rigs, and renewed investment by international oil companies—positions Nigeria for higher output capacity.
Persistent production shortfalls have been blamed on oil theft, pipeline vandalism, ageing infrastructure, and funding constraints. Although the government has intensified surveillance along oil corridors, production remains below pre-2020 levels, when Nigeria consistently pumped over 1.8 million bpd.
While the latest figures fall short of OPEC expectations, they indicate a gradual recovery that, if sustained, could boost foreign exchange earnings and strengthen fiscal stability. With refinery rehabilitation ongoing, new private refineries like Dangote’s coming onstream, and a renewed focus on upstream investment, Nigeria may be poised for a stronger performance in 2026—provided it overcomes security and infrastructure bottlenecks hampering growth.
