Akin Osuntokun, former Director-General of the Labour Party (LP) Presidential Campaign Council, has cast doubt on the effectiveness of a newly formed opposition coalition aiming to challenge President Bola Tinubu in the 2027 election.
In a recent interview, Osuntokun noted that while political alliances are common in Nigeria, he remains skeptical about this coalition’s chances of success. He attributed Tinubu’s political strength to his vast experience and the power of incumbency, which he believes the President will use to his advantage if he seeks re-election.
“If Tinubu could win in 2023 despite the odds, his position as the sitting President makes him an even stronger contender in 2027,” Osuntokun remarked.
The opposition coalition, spearheaded by former Vice President Atiku Abubakar, was unveiled in Abuja last week. Among the key figures present at the announcement were Peter Obi, the Labour Party’s 2023 presidential candidate; Babachir Lawal, former Secretary to the Government of the Federation; and former Kaduna State Governor, Nasir El-Rufai.
While Osuntokun acknowledged that forming a coalition is a logical step, he warned that internal conflicts—especially over selecting a presidential candidate—could weaken or even break the alliance. He emphasized the need for unity and strategic planning.
“For an opposition party to stand a real chance, they must present a united front. But if they can’t agree on a method to choose their candidate, the coalition could easily fall apart,” he cautioned.
One of his main concerns is the choice of a presidential candidate. Osuntokun argued that nominating a northern politician like Atiku could prove problematic as it would disrupt Nigeria’s long-standing power rotation between the North and South. He suggested that the coalition should consider a southern candidate to maintain political balance.
“If Atiku runs, he would be violating a convention that has shaped Nigeria’s leadership since 1999, and that could cost the opposition crucial support,” he explained.
Despite his skepticism, Osuntokun acknowledged that a strong coalition has successfully unseated a ruling party before. He referenced the 2015 election, where the All Progressives Congress (APC) defeated the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP). However, he maintained that facing Tinubu in 2027 would be a much tougher challenge.
“The opposition is up against a political strategist who will do whatever it takes to win,” he stated.
