Global crude oil prices surged on Thursday toward $84 per barrel, marking the highest level recorded this year and significantly exceeding Nigeria’s 2026 budget benchmark of $64.85 per barrel.
According to Bloomberg, Brent Crude, the global oil benchmark, rose by about 12 per cent within the first three days of the week, while West Texas Intermediate traded close to $78 per barrel.
The spike in prices comes amid escalating tensions in the Middle East as the ongoing conflict involving the United States, Israel, and Iran disrupted crude oil flows to major importers.
Reports indicate that global oil prices have continued to rise as the warring parties press ahead with the conflict. Meanwhile, China, the world’s largest crude importer, is taking steps to conserve fuel supplies.
The Chinese government has reportedly directed its largest refiners to suspend exports of diesel and gasoline in an effort to prioritize domestic demand as the crisis deepens. Similarly, a major oil processor in India has informed customers of plans to halt product exports, while refiners in Japan have requested their government to release oil from strategic petroleum reserves.
Higher crude prices are expected to boost revenue for the Nigerian government, although the country’s oil production has remained below its quota set by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries.
However, the surge in global prices could also increase domestic fuel costs, with petrol prices already rising across the country.
Market analysts say the main concern remains the Strait of Hormuz, a critical shipping route through which a significant portion of global oil and gas supplies passes. Traffic through the waterway, including oil and gas tankers, has reportedly been severely disrupted, effectively halting the movement of crude from Iran and other Persian Gulf producers and forcing some producers to scale down output.
Analysts warn that continued instability in the Middle East could trigger further spikes in global oil prices. A senior market analyst at Phillip Nova Pte, Priyanka Sachdeva, said even a single successful strike on oil infrastructure or tankers could cause prices to jump sharply again.
Similarly, the Chief Executive Officer of Goldman Sachs Group, David Solomon, said there remains considerable uncertainty about the direction and possible resolution of the Middle East conflict.
The rising oil prices are already having ripple effects in Nigeria’s downstream sector. Dangote Refinery recently increased its gantry price for petrol by N100, raising the ex-depot rate to N874 per litre from N774.
Following the adjustment, several fuel marketers also raised their prices, while the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited increased the pump price of petrol at its retail outlets in Abuja to N960 per litre, up from N875.
Many filling stations operated by the national oil company in the Federal Capital Territory have already implemented the new price, reflecting the impact of rising global crude prices on the domestic market.
