The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has revised Nigeria’s economic growth forecast upward to 3.4% for 2025, an increase of 0.4 percentage points from its previous projection of 3.0% in April.
In its July 2025 World Economic Outlook (WEO), the IMF also upgraded Nigeria’s 2026 growth forecast to 3.2%, up from 2.7% projected in April—a 0.5 percentage point increase.
The report reflects a broader trend of modest global optimism. The IMF now projects global economic growth at 3.0% in 2025 (up by 0.2 points) and 3.1% in 2026 (up by 0.1 points).
Similarly, growth in Sub-Saharan Africa is expected to reach 4.0% in 2025 and 4.3% in 2026, both slightly higher than the previous estimates of 3.8% and 4.2%, respectively.
“Growth is expected to be relatively stable in 2025 in Sub-Saharan Africa at 4.0%, before picking up to 4.3% in 2026,” the IMF noted.
Tunde Abidoye, Head of Equity Research at FBNQuest Merchant Bank, said the IMF’s updated forecast aligns with their internal projections based on data from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS).
“The upward revision likely reflects improved oil output and a strong services sector,” Abidoye said. “However, with growth still in the low single digits, the outlook remains cautiously optimistic, and insufficient to meaningfully reduce poverty.”
