Photo: NATO Defence Spending yet to get Trump’s nod
NATO is set to formally endorse a new defence spending target of 5% of GDP, marking a major strategic shift as member states respond to escalating threats from Russia and concerns over long-term US commitment.
The announcement of the latest NATO defence spending comes during a high-stakes summit in The Hague, where leaders from the 32-member alliance have gathered to strengthen their collective security posture.
The proposed benchmark would replace NATO’s current 2% target, which has guided alliance defence budgets for over a decade. Under the new formula, 3.5% of GDP would be allocated to core military capabilities such as personnel, equipment, and ammunition, with a further 1.5% devoted to supporting infrastructure, including cyber defence, ports, roads, and logistics essential for rapid force deployment.
NATO member states’ total defence expenditure of $1.47 trillion in 2024, almost doubled $896 billion in 2015, fueled by the Russian war on Ukraine and increasing uneasiness of member states, particularly in the Baltic region.
The U.S. is NATO’s largest contributor, increasing from $660 b in 2014 to $743 b in 2023, and reaching approximately $895 b in 2024.
NATO’s incoming Secretary General, Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte, said there was broad support for the new target, calling it a “generational shift” in how member nations think about defence and deterrence.
“This is not a symbolic gesture,” Rutte told reporters. “We are preparing NATO for a world where hard power matters again.”
While the majority of NATO members appear ready to align with the new framework, the proposal has exposed some internal disagreements. Spain has publicly rejected the 5% goal, citing domestic spending priorities and warning of potential consequences for social and environmental programmes. Madrid is pushing for more flexible criteria or an opt-out clause.
In contrast, countries bordering Russia and the Baltic region have already accelerated their defence spending. Estonia is projected to exceed 5.4% by 2026, and Poland is expected to reach 4.7% next year. Norway has also committed to the new target, planning to use its sovereign wealth fund to gradually increase its budget after 2030.
The United States, which currently spends around 3.4% of its GDP on defence, has not committed to the full 5% benchmark. President Donald Trump has frequently criticised NATO allies for underspending.
Driving the urgency behind NATO’s decision is Russia’s continued military expansion and its war in Ukraine. With Moscow now spending more than 7% of GDP on its armed forces, alliance officials say a stronger and more agile NATO is essential. One of the summit’s key goals is ensuring that NATO can mobilise 300,000 troops within 30 days in the event of a major crisis.
The 5% target is designed to link spending to concrete improvements in readiness, with each member required to submit annual defence plans outlining progress. The focus will include missile defence, long-range strike capabilities, ammunition reserves, and enhanced air and naval power.
The announcement also reflects growing unease in Europe about the predictability of American support, particularly in the context of shifting US politics. Rutte said recent developments had convinced many European governments that greater strategic autonomy was no longer optional.
Despite concerns about fiscal sustainability, the European Union is reportedly considering easing deficit rules to help countries meet the new defence commitments. Rutte was quick to emphasise that the increased investment in NATO would not undermine aid to Ukraine, saying, “This is not a trade-off. Strengthening NATO strengthens Ukraine.”
The final declaration is expected to be signed by all members before the summit concludes. While the move marks a decisive turn in NATO’s defence posture, it also sets the stage for challenging budget decisions across the alliance in the years ahead.
